ارزیابی مالی و اقتصادی تکمیل زنجیره تولید آلومینا با احداث کارخانه سیمان دیرگداز

رهبر, امیرحسین; قلعه‌بان بخشایش, علی; ارجمندپور, الهام

doi:10.22034/bs.2026.2081363.3198

ارزیابی مالی و اقتصادی تکمیل زنجیره تولید آلومینا با احداث کارخانه سیمان دیرگداز

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی (کاربردی)

نویسندگان

امیرحسین رهبر ¹

علی قلعه‌بان بخشایش ²

الهام ارجمندپور ³

¹ استادیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

² گروه تجارت بین‌الملل، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

³ گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

10.22034/bs.2026.2081363.3198

چکیده

سیمان دیرگداز به عنوان ماده‌ای مقاوم در برابر حرارت بالا، خوردگی و فرسایش در صنایع مختلف کاربرد دارد. با توجه به در دسترس بودن آهک مورد نیاز تولید این سیمان در استان همدان، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی امکان تولید سیمان دیرگداز در این استان با رویکردی آمیخته (کمی-کیفی) پرداخته است. برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از روش مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختار یافته با 16 نفر از خبرگان صنعت استفاده شده است. تحقیق در سه مرحله با محوریت مطالعات بازاریابی، مطالعات فنی- تکنولوژی و مطالعات مالی-اقتصادی انجام شد. روند بازار داخلی و بین‌المللی محصول مبتنی بر داده‌های تجاری با استفاده از مصاحبه‌های ساختار یافته و روش رگرسیون پیش‌بینی گردید. برای تخمین هزینه ثابت و جاری از داده‌های آماری و استعلام از مراجع معتبر استفاده شد. در نهایت ارزیابی مالی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار کامفار صورت گرفت. یافته‌ها نشان داد که تولید سیمان دیرگداز در ایران با وجود چالش‌های تأمین آلومینای خالص، پتانسیل بالایی برای رشد و صادرات دارد. مازاد عرضه با رشد مثبتی مواجه بوده و از 10,993 تن (1402) به مقدار 32,054 تن (1405) خواهد رسید. در کشورهای همسایه نیز ظرفیت مناسب صادراتی (458,000 تن) وجود دارد. کل سرمایه‌گذاری مورد نیاز پروژه 27,590,511 میلیون ریال بوده و با استفاده از 11/55 درصد از ظرفیت تولید در سال اول، پروژه به نقطه سر به سری می‌رسد. دوره بازگشت سرمایه، 67/4 سال، ارزش خالص فعلی سرمایه، 87/9,098,279 میلیون ریال و نرخ بازده داخلی سرمایه‌گذاری برابر با 51/42 درصد به‌دست آمده است؛ فلذا پروژه در شرایط فوق توجیه‌پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

طرح کسب‌وکار/ کارآفرینی/ مطالعات بازاریابی/ تحلیل رگرسیون /نرم افزار کامفار

عنوان مقاله English

Financial and Economic Evaluation of Completing the Alumina Production Chain through the Establishment of a Refractory Cement Plant

نویسندگان English

Amir Hossein Rahbar ¹

Ali Qalehban Bakhshayesh ²

Elham Arjmandpour ³

¹ Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran

² Department of International Trade, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

³ Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.

چکیده English

Refractory cement, owing to its resistance to high temperatures, corrosion, and abrasion, is widely used in various industries. Given the availability of the lime required for its production in Hamedan Province, this study evaluates the feasibility of establishing a refractory cement plant in the province using a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) approach. Data were collected through library research and semi-structured interviews with 16 industry experts. The study was conducted in three stages: market analysis, technical and technological assessment, and financial and economic evaluation. Domestic and international market trends were forecast based on trade data, structured interviews, and regression analysis. Fixed and operating costs were estimated using statistical data and inquiries from reliable sources. Finally, the financial evaluation was conducted using COMFAR software. The findings indicate that, despite challenges in securing high-purity alumina, refractory cement production in Iran has considerable growth and export potential. The supply surplus is projected to increase from 10,993 tons in 2023 to 32,054 tons in 2026. In addition, neighboring countries offer substantial export potential, estimated at approximately 458,000 tons. The total required investment is estimated at 27,590,511 million rials. The project is expected to reach its break-even point in the first year of operation at 11.55% of production capacity. The payback period is estimated at 4.67 years, while the net present value (NPV) is 9,098,279.87 million rials and the internal rate of return (IRR) is 42.51%. Overall, the results indicate that the proposed project is financially and economically viable under the assumed conditions.
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کلیدواژه‌ها English

Business Plan / Entrepreneurship / Marketing Studies / Regression Analysis / COMFAR Software

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